What I’ve Observed
In addition to the Summer Creek preview I posted, here are some match-up specific observations I have from watching every Katy game and four of Summer Creek’s games this season. And because I’m a “glutton for punishment” as Coach Miller once said for those of us who showed up to a particularly ugly film night back in the day, I watched Katy’s games against Atascocita from non-district and last year’s playoff against North Shore.
Katy is 2-6 when the opponent scores 35 or more points over the past five seasons and 0-3 in the playoffs. The two wins are 41-37 over Dickinson (2024) and 42-35 against Jordan (2023) in regular season games. Over 15 games in this same five-year span against higher caliber playoff opposition (regular season and playoffs), Katy’s average points for is 32.9 and points against is 34.3.
When looking deeper into these higher profile contests, there is a consistent theme with game state that’ll be a crucial factor against Summer Creek. In games where Katy’s struggled the most, the opponent has put the Tigers into an early hole (double digit deficit) and forced the Tigers into chase mode. Slow starts on offense, turnovers, explosive scoring plays allowed on defense, and poor special teams play all have compounded the issues.
Addressing the Armchair QBs
I have read comments from many hoping Katy shows some things on offense they haven’t so far this season passing wise, and my response to that is Katy’s going to continue doing what it has relied on all season with the running game. You play to your strengths this time of year especially. The Tigers absolutely need to be efficient when they pass and preferably hit an explosive TD or two in the air, but you will not see Katy throw 20 plus times. The main items I am concerned about is how well and cleanly Katy executes across the board run and pass wise and finishes its drives with touchdowns. Field goals aren’t going to cut it unless Katy’s kicking one to win the game.
Defensively, the biggest match-up items will be properly coordinating coverages to account for the deep zones and tackling in the short zones against the quick passes. Katy’s defensive backs and linebackers will need to play their absolute best mentally and physically. Strategically, finding a way to consistently pressure Spinks will be crucial. Coach Joseph understands better than anyone you can’t just ask a defense to cover all game against talented skill players and an accurate QB and that pressure must also be applied in a disciplined manner. I expect Katy will dial up just about everything it knows pressures wise and try to make it a bad day for Spinks. Katy must make Summer Creek work for anything it gets on offense.
Special Teams will be Crucial
Kick coverage is going to be massive. Again, this has been a theme in games where Katy has struggled the most. We saw it all against Atascocita (big returns and fake punts allowed) and it produced a huge swing in the final score. Explosive teams don’t need the help of a short field or second chances.
Katy must take advantage of as many opportunities as it is presented with in this game. In reviewing the games Katy’s been involved in these past five years against the highest profile opponents, attention to detail and execution are the two things I come back to every time. When Katy is on point with details, the results are overwhelmingly positive.
There is a clear path I see for Katy in this game if the Tigers show up ready to play and execute. Katy is not the same level of underdog here as it was against North Shore last year and certainly not Westlake of 2021. I believe teams don’t typically “rise to the occasion” this time of year in the sense they get outside of themselves and find some previously undiscovered dimension, but rather they stand on the business of their strengths, their brotherhood, their training, and apply lessons learned from experiences. The best attribute a team can have in the state playoffs is the ability to get out of its own way and allow the team to operate at its peak level.
