Football is coming, so I figured I’d go ahead and get everyone primed for the Tigers with the 2025 Football preview. After winning state and two semifinal losses to start the 20s, Katy’s had second and third round losses the last two seasons. Katy was last in this position going into 2020 after losing to North Shore in 2018 and 2019. Before that, 1997 was the last season where Katy entered a season from back-to-back early round playoff exits in 1995 and 1996. Katy responded both of those times with state championship wins.
A review of last year’s Tigers
In the underlying data metrics we use to determine program trending in our model at Tradition Never Graduates, Katy had a clear drop off overall in the cateogies of adjusted offense, adjusted defense and dominance. Katy’s metrics dropped by nearly 10 points in adjusted offense and 10-15 points in dominance rating. Katy’s defense rebounded last year and improved by nearly 4.5 points in adjusted defense. In general, the adjusted metrics rate a team’s performance relative to what their competition allows on average.
Katy’s numbers were not terrible last year (+17.6 AO, -17.8 AD), but not in the elite realm the program has been accustomed to performing (+20, -20 plus is where you typically see the contenders). In the 2020 state year, for example, Katy was +30.6 adjusted offense and -24.6 adjusted defense. Katy’s metrics are trending up going into this season, primarily on the defensive side with continued improvement expected (putting Katy above the -20 threshold potentially). The offense is predicted to be around the same as last year in the metrics (+18).
Once again, Katy will start the season with two strong playoff caliber opponents in Dickinson and Atascocita to see where it stands early. I like that Katy is continuing to schedule these teams early because it is important to measure yourself against what the required level will be later in the season. Katy has had some coaching staff turnover this off-season with a new offensive coordinator (Franklin) and defensive coordinator (Blum) in addition to some new position coaches. The Tigers return 6 starters on offense and 7 on defense.
How the Tigers look going into this year
The biggest area of strength for Katy on offense is the line and running back positions. The Tigers return LaMar Brown, Adedapo Adetosoye, and Andrew Freeze as experienced leaders up front. In addition, junior Isaac Coughran switched to offensive line from defense this off-season and will play tackle. Katy is going to be talented and deep in the blocking department. At running back, Katy returns Trey Hill, Tony Manual, and MJ Benas. Sophomore CJ Watts has a chance to factor into the varsity rotation along with Fayo George. Due to recurring injuries last year, Katy ended up using 7 different primary running backs by my count. Hopeully, the Tigers keep a cleaner bill of heatlh this season. It would be difficult for things to go more poorly than they did last year.
Who is under center this year?
Katy will have a new quarterback after Gunner Nelson started two seasons, so this is one of the big areas of need for Katy. Senior Jakson Franklin and junior Mason Hartwell are the top contenders for the role and took the reigns during spring. Hartwell returned to Katy from Brookshire Royal this off-season (he started there as a sophomore) and went to junior high at Woodcreek. Given the changes at the top, I think we can expect to see a different flavor of the Katy offense.
During spring, I saw clips some of the players posted and Katy was doing more out of the shotgun than I’ve seen since Pat Dowling was running the offense. I’ll be interested to see how much that translates to live action and if Katy is going to be more diversified in terms of being better at spreading the field in addition to the trademark base I formations. Most of this will come down to the quarterbacks and how quickly they are able to pick things up in addition to what kind of quality Katy has at the receiver positions.
Offensive unknowns
Outside of QB, the biggest unknown for Katy on offense is the receiver position outside of Cade McCall. McCall, after two years of being the #2 option after Izzy (graduated), is the number one now. Jack Malone, like Hartwell above, has returned to Katy after playing in the private school ranks, and will be an option for the Tigers out wide. Katy must find 2 or 3 other solid options outside of McCall who can make it possible for the Tigers to expand the offense more effectively. I’m hearing good things about sophomore Braylon Pettaway. Fullback is another experienced spot. for who steps forward. George, mentioned above, could help at fullback along with talented sophomore Scotty Zuehlke and returning senior Nathaniel Gayhart. Tight end will be a position to watch to see who steps forward there.
How is the Defense looking this year?
Defensively, there is a quite a bit to like about what Katy returns. Back to back district MVP, at least in my view, Jeremiah Smith (OLB) headlines Katy’s impressive group of returning starters. Up front, junior Terry Brister is back after a very impressive sophomore season. Junior Liam Leonard is one to look for up front. On the second level, in addition to Smith, there is middle linebacker Reid Garrelts. Garrelts was another cornerstone in Katy’s effort last year who is back to lead in 25. One of Katy’s biggest revelations a year ago, Cooper Knott, returns at the hybrid OLB/safety position that is so crucial to the Tiger scheme.
Knott impressed me every game a year ago, so I’m delighted he’s back. Juniors Aferi Davies and Wes Sewell are two more in position to step forward this season. In the secondary, Katy returns Isaiah McMillian is back as one of Katy’s most sought after DB recruits ever. Mason Dismuke and Josh Garcia also return as starters. Garcia will be a three-year starter. Dismuke would have started as a sophomore if not for injury. Matt Saulsberry was moved to safety from receiver and earned a rank of General (the highest possible) this off-season.
Giovanni Moreno will handle placekicking duties. Katy as a few key losses to graduation, and the biggest certainly is Adam Carter. Carter’s efforts on defense and special teams will not be easily replaced.
So then, who is coming back?
Katy has a good core group of returning experience to build around overall with some key question marks. A huge key on defense will be developing depth and getting a talented and consistent unit in the secondary. Secondary play is crucial given the kind of speed and athletic ability the top programs have now to go with outstanding quarterback play. Any weakness at the back is exploited with extreme prejudice, so this will be a key for Katy to solve if the Tigers are to contend at a region or state level.
On paper, North Shore and Atascocita have some work to do to replace talented outgoing players, but those programs usually are not hurting for talent in the pipeilne ready to step in. Katy understands very well what the required level is to contend, and the question is whether the Tigers have the horses in the building to challenge on that level.
I watched the North Shore game back earlier this year in depth and, despite the widely acknowledged talent gap between the two teams, so much of what happened in that game was fundamental errors from Katy’s point of view as opposed to just being completely out-athleted. There were similar issues in the two previous seasons in Katy’s playoff losses to Cy Fair and Vandegrift. Attention to detail is everything, and that’s what Katy has built its entire model of success on.
Final thoughts…
Katy is going to find out where it stands immediately against the talent of Dickinson and Cardae Mack at Atascocita (yes, him again). We saw a change in the wind direction last season with both Duncanville and North Shore falling in the semifinals while North Crowley and Vandegrift took home the state championships. Whether that was a temporary blip or a sign of a cycle change after a 6-7 year run from those juggernauts (in addition to Westlake), we will see if Katy can get back amongst the elite this season.
